U need to know BEFORE the data comes out.
Have you ever heard the results of a study and asked yourself why in the heck someone felt the need to even conduct such a study? Something like, three researchers at Oxford University have concluded that child obesity is caused by kids eating more junk food and exercising less.
Really? Is that why?? We needed researchers to conclude that for us?
Okay, to be clear, I actually do understand the need for conducting studies, even ones as obvious as the one stated above. Scientifically speaking it makes sense, but if you’re waiting around for the results of a study about something that appears obvious to you, it’s often too late by the time the study comes out.
People have surmised for years that smoking was bad for you but the concern didn’t become “official” until the results arrived. There are so many things that instinctively make sense without the need for data.
Do you need to wait for a study to show you that you should wear a helmet when you ride a motorcycle? Whether you wear one or not, wouldn’t you think it would be safer to wear one? If you wait until the study shows that it’s 66%** safer to wear a helmet it may be too late.
In business, it’s quite the same. You need to predict trends well before the data proves them. That’s what vision is all about. You want the data to come along and support what you’re doing; not have it come out and then create a business around it.
Take for example this new company I’m working on called HookUP Feed (sorry, it’s all I can think about right now). Back in June ‘08, it occurred to me that consumers might like to have the power to “target” brands instead of it always being the other way around. The data shows that when a brand targets you by offering you a coupon, you will use it .05-6% of the time (depending on how you receive it—via email, text, newspaper, etc).
To me, that’s too low. I’m betting that the % would be much higher if the consumer was actually given the coupon at the very moment he or she searched for that product. For instance, you search for pizza and you’re instantly given a discount (or as I call it, a hookUP) on a pizza joint (or many pizza joints) that are near you.
Now, I haven’t found any data to support my theory, but if you had to guess, do you think people would be more inclined to use a discount for pizza when they’re actually interested in pizza or when they’re surfing the internet and some pizza coupon pops up in front of them?
Go with your gut and don’t wait for the data.
-Evan Lowenstein
**78.4% of all percentages are made up on the spot.
